New carbon figures throw doubt on green papers effectiveness

Since last years election the Rudd Labor Government has been determined to bring its environmental policies to the forefront of the political landscape. It achieved this by immediately ratifying the Kyoto Protocol and commissioning the Garnaut Climate Change Review to look into the mechanisms involved in devising a cap-and-trade emissions scheme. In July of this year the government released the much anticipated Green Paper outlining a design for the promised trading scheme that would be introduced by 2010 to give business a financial incentive to cut pollution. Furthermore, it recently announced in September a plan for a $100 million international institute to spearhead research on capturing and burying greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

The adequacy of the Government’s proposals could be thrown into doubt by the latest 2007 figures into carbon dioxide emissions released in Paris last month by the Global Carbon Project (GCP). Releasing the data, Dr Michael  Raupach, GCP co-Chair and a CSIRO scientist said the research revealed that humans generated 10 billion tonnes of carbon in 2007 from the use of fuels like coal and oil, from making cement and from massive deforestation. This put the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at 383 parts per million, around 37 per cent above the levels at the start of the industrial revolution and the highest level for at least 650,000 years.1

“This is a concerning trend in light of global efforts to curb emissions,” says GCP Executive-Director, Dr Pep Canadell, a carbon specialist based at CSIRO in Canberra. He said that by comparing this research with previous research conducted by pier review journals it revealed that atmospheric carbon dioxide growth has been outstripping the growth of natural carbon dioxide sinks such as forests and oceans. He conceded that emissions have grown four times faster than the previous decade, exceeding the worst-case scenarios of the UN's peak scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Dr Canadell said "this new update of the carbon budget shows the acceleration of both  carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric accumulation are unprecedented and most astonishing during a decade of intense international developments to address climate change,"3

Scientists expressed alarm at the figures, which also show global greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels have soared since 2000, largely because of economic growth in developing countries.3 India is poised to become the third biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, taking the place of Russia. The top three emitters of carbon dioxide will soon be China, the US and India.The biggest increase in emissions has taken place in developing countries, largely in China and India, while developed countries have been growing slowly.4  However Dr Canadell said that "since 2000 Australian fossil-fuel emissions have grown by 2 per cent per year", with one of the main concerns being that "Australia’s position remains unique as a developed country with rapidly growing emissions”. This rapid rise will make it difficult for Australia to cut its emissions by 2020, even by the modest amount of 10 per cent recommended by Professor Ross Garnaut, the Government's climate change adviser. It shows Australia's greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuel are continuing to rise rapidly in stark contrast to other developed countries.3

It is worth noting that the figures only measure carbon dioxide emissions. When other gases like methane are added, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are around 410 parts per million, according to CSIRO scientist Dr Paul Fraser. The most recent UN scientific reports find that if the concentrations go over 450 parts per million, the world risks increasing average temperatures more than 2.5 degrees, which could cause mass extinctions of species.4

 

introduction of an emissions scheme in Australia and globally was vexed enough without expecting nervous economies to bear further expense by putting a price on carbon. "It is an even greater difficulty at a time when the global economy is under great global financial stress."3

Some of the key points of the Governments Green Papers follow:

· 2010 start-up date only an "intention".

· Includes about 75 per cent of Australia's emissions

· About 1,000 businesses that emit more than 25,000 tonnes of carbon a year will be required to buy permits and monitor and report their emissions.

· Electricity generation, transport, emissions released from oil and gas production, industrial processes and waste will all be included in the scheme from the start.

· Agriculture will not be included any earlier than 2015, with a final decision to be made in 2013.

· Deforestation is not included but forestry can be included on a voluntary basis and receive permits for sequestration, or the burial of carbon.

· Large greenhouse gas emitters like the aluminum and cement industries to get some free permits.

· Petrol will be included but there will initially be 100% offset of cost increases by reduction in the fuel excise.

· The fuel price will be adjusted periodically over the next three years after which the system will be reviewed.

· Once a cap is set, carbon permits per tonne will be auctioned with a price set by the market.,

· Businesses will know within a five-year timeframe what the carbon emission cap would be, and can trade permits.

· Coal-fired energy generators will receive limited but as yet undefined direct assistance at the beginning of the scheme.

 

References

1: CSIRO Media Release:08/175 - Emissions rising faster this year than last September 26, 2008  http://www.csiro.au/news/EmissionsRising.html

2:Sydney Morning Herald Article—Rudd delivers a low blow on Garnaut modeling by Stephanie Peatling; September 20, 2008

3: Sydney Morning Herald Article—Australian emissions still rising rapidly by Marian Wilkinson and Ben Cubby; September 26, 2008

4: CSIRO Global Carbon Project figures: A factsheet detailing the 2007 data for the Global Carbon Project, a joint international project on the global carbon cycle www.csiro.au/news 

Dr Barry Brook, director of the Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability, said the latest figures for atmospheric carbon were ominous. "If you look at current government policy, then it doesn't add up anyway, even before these figures," he said." Cutting our emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 won't do it, because we are already such high emitters per capita. It has to be more like 90 per cent.".3

Addressing a climate change meeting in New York, Mr. Rudd warned the