Garnaut’s draft emission target report gets mixed response

As it stands Australia is responsible for about 1.2 percent of global carbon emissions, but remains one of the highest polluters per capita because of the nation's reliance on coal and other fossil fuels. Australia is the world's largest coal exporter and relies on coal to generate about 80 percent of its electricity. 1

Consequently, the release in September of the latest supplementary report by professor Garnaut has received mixed reactions, with Prime Minister Rudd indicating the suggested emission targets border on being cautious, while green groups suggesting the review had not gone far enough to addressing Australia’s response to climate change.4

The draft report suggested the Government set a target of cutting emissions by 10 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 as part of a modest but achievable global deal. The report indicated that it may be almost impossible to reach the per capita target of 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide levels by 2050, and instead suggesting the figure of 550 parts per million would be more manageable goal.3

Professor Garnaut said that the emissions trajectories proposed by the Review were based on the ‘per capita’ allocation of emissions rights, which was a fair global solution and had the best chance of securing international support for sharing a global emissions budget.The 450 target is in keeping with the Government's long-term promise to cut emissions by 60 per cent by 2050, but will be hard to reach unless Australia cuts its emissions by 25% by 2020. Professor Garnaut said that Australia should make a proportionate commitment within a global framework based on per capita pollution levels. He believed Australia should be willing to commit to a more ambitious global deal, under which Australia would make a 25 per cent cut, but said it could not be achieved in the short term. As it stands “per capita allocations provide the only possible basis for an international agreement that includes developing countries. This is because it takes population growth into account and gradually reduces the weighting of historical starting points over time.”2

Based on a 550ppm outcome, Australia’s share of the burden would be a 10 per cent reduction (or 30 per cent in per capita terms) by 2020 and an 80 per cent reduction (90 per cent per capita) by 2050 over 2000 levels. If a ‘450ppm overshoot’ scenario were adopted, emissions would need to be reduced by 25 per cent by 2020 (40 per cent per capita), falling to 90 per cent by 2050 (95 per cent per capita).The actual targets will be released later this year 3

The first Garnaut Review, which was released February 2008, was designed to examine the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, and recommend medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity.

The second draft report of the Garnaut Review was released on 04 July 2008. The main conclusions of the report are:

· An emissions trading scheme, ETS, is preferred to a tax or hybrid scheme.

· The ETS could have a transitional phase from 2010-2012

· Permits could be sold at a "low, fixed" price during the transitional phase.

· Spreading the costs across the economy will be achieved by including as may sectors as possible

· Transport should be included in the emissions trading scheme ("ETS").

· Emissions permits should be sold competitively, not given away to polluters.

· Low income households will need compensation.

· Half of the funds collected from the sale of permits can provide compensation for low income families.

· Areas that rely on coal-based power stations will need specific support.

 

 

Will the Australian government be prepared to accept all of Professor Garnaut’s climate change recommendations?

and will hit low income households hardest.

Reference

1: Report to the Climate Institute: A comparison of emission pathways and policy mixes to achieve major reductions in Australia’s electricity sector greenhouse emissions 8 September 2008 McLennan Magasanik Associates Pty Ltd Vic

2: Sydney Morning Herald article Garnaut is wrong, says scientists 9th Sept 2008 by Adam Morton

3: Media Release Friday 5 September 2008 Garnaut: Start on 550ppm trajectory, aim for 450 or lower

The Supplementary Draft Report Targets and trajectories was released on 5 September 2008 at the National Press Club in Canberra.

4 Sydney Morning Herald Article—Rudd delivers a low blow on Garnaut modeling by Stephanie Peatling; September 20, 2008

· Australia should lead the way in making carbon capture storage commercially viable

· A new research council should be set up.

· $3 billion per year or 20% of the revenue raised from auctioning permits (whichever is greatest) should be allocated to low-emissions technology R&D

· The Building Australia Fund should also be used for energy infrastructure.

· Australia should help Asian countries reduce their levels of emissions.

· Energy prices will rise under the scheme